Scenario Planning
The Scenario Planning module enables portfolio managers to create what-if scenarios that model alternative portfolio compositions without modifying live data. Scenarios support project inclusion/exclusion, budget overrides, priority adjustments, deep cloning, and side-by-side comparison with delta metrics.
Overview
Portfolio decisions -- which projects to fund, which to defer, how to reallocate budget -- have significant consequences. Making these decisions against live data is risky because changes are immediately visible to the organization. Scenario planning provides a safe sandbox: portfolio managers can model multiple alternatives, compare their outcomes, and then promote the best scenario to become the new baseline.
Each scenario starts as a snapshot of the current portfolio membership and allows per-project overrides for inclusion status, budget, priority, and notes. Multiple scenarios can coexist for the same portfolio, enabling structured comparison during steering committee reviews.
Getting Started
- Navigate to Portfolio > Scenarios in the sidebar.
- Select a portfolio and click New Scenario to create a what-if model.
- The scenario is automatically populated with the current portfolio projects.
- Toggle projects in or out using the Include/Exclude switch.
- Override budgets and priorities for specific projects as needed.
- Create additional scenarios for alternative options.
- Use Compare Scenarios to view side-by-side metrics.
- Promote the chosen scenario to make it the base scenario.
Key Concepts
Scenario Structure
A scenario belongs to a specific portfolio and contains:
- Name and description: human-readable labels for identification
- Base scenario flag: indicates which scenario represents the current approved portfolio state
- Total budget constraint: optional cap that the scenario's total budget should not exceed
- Scenario projects: one entry per portfolio project with override fields
Project Overrides
Each project within a scenario can have:
- Included: whether the project is active in this scenario (toggle on/off)
- Priority override: a numeric rank that overrides the portfolio's default priority
- Budget override: a specific budget figure that replaces the project's actual budget for scenario calculations
- Notes: free-text justification for the override decisions
When no override is set, the scenario falls back to the project's actual data from the portfolio.
Base Scenario
One scenario per portfolio can be marked as the "base" scenario. The base represents the currently approved portfolio composition and serves as the benchmark for comparing alternative scenarios. Promoting a scenario to base replaces the previous base designation.
Scenario Comparison
The compare procedure accepts two to three scenario IDs and returns side-by-side metrics:
- Total included projects per scenario
- Total budget per scenario (using overrides where set, falling back to actual budgets)
- Delta metrics: differences between scenarios in project count and budget
- Per-project comparison: which projects are included in which scenarios and how their budgets differ
How It Works
Creating Scenarios
When a scenario is created, the system automatically populates it with all currently active projects from the portfolio (those without an excludedAt timestamp). Each project inherits its current priority rank as the initial priority override. This means every new scenario starts as a copy of the current state.
Toggling Projects
The toggleProject procedure sets a project's inclusion status within a scenario. If no scenario-project row exists yet (for projects added to the portfolio after the scenario was created), a new row is created with the specified inclusion state.
Updating Overrides
The updateProjectOverride procedure accepts a scenario ID and project ID along with optional fields for inclusion, priority override, budget override, and notes. Only provided fields are updated; omitted fields are left unchanged.
Budget overrides are stored as PostgreSQL NUMERIC strings to preserve decimal precision.
Cloning Scenarios
The clone action creates a deep copy of a scenario: a new scenario record with all project overrides duplicated. The clone is never automatically set as base, preventing accidental promotion. Cloning is useful for creating variations of a promising scenario (e.g., "Scenario A - with Project X" and "Scenario A - without Project X").
Comparing Scenarios
The compare procedure fetches two to three scenarios, loads their project overrides with actual project data, and computes aggregate metrics for each. The response includes:
- Per-scenario summaries: included project count, total budget
- Per-project rows showing inclusion status and budget in each scenario
- Budget deltas between scenarios
Promoting to Base
Promoting a scenario marks it as the base and unmarks the previous base. This does not modify the portfolio's actual project memberships or budgets. It records an organizational decision: "this scenario represents our approved plan."
Deleting Scenarios
Deleting a scenario removes the scenario record and all its project overrides via database cascade. The base scenario can be deleted, but the portfolio will then have no base until another is promoted.
Configuration
| Setting | Location | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario name | Scenario form | Human-readable label for identification |
| Total budget constraint | Scenario form | Optional budget cap for the scenario |
| Project inclusion | Scenario > Project toggle | Include or exclude a project |
| Budget override | Scenario > Project edit | Override the project's actual budget |
| Priority override | Scenario > Project edit | Override the project's priority rank |
| Base scenario | Scenario > Promote | Mark as the approved baseline |
Permissions
- View scenarios: all organization members with PPM access
- Create/edit scenarios: requires PPM admin or portfolio manager role
- Delete scenarios: requires PPM admin or portfolio manager role
- Toggle/override projects: requires PPM admin or portfolio manager role
- Promote to base: requires PPM admin role (organizational decision)
- Compare scenarios: all organization members with PPM access
Tips & Best Practices
- Always maintain a base scenario: The base scenario serves as the reference point for all comparisons. Without it, delta metrics are meaningless.
- Name scenarios descriptively: Use names like "FY-2026 Aggressive Growth" or "FY-2026 Cost Reduction" rather than "Scenario 1" and "Scenario 2."
- Document override rationale in notes: When overriding a budget or excluding a project, add a note explaining why. This context is invaluable during steering committee reviews.
- Clone before modifying: If a scenario is promising, clone it before making additional changes. This preserves the original for comparison.
- Limit comparisons to 2-3 scenarios: The compare view works best with two or three scenarios. More than three makes the comparison difficult to digest.
- Use budget constraints: Setting a total budget constraint helps identify whether a scenario is financially feasible before presenting it to stakeholders.
- Promote after formal approval: Only promote a scenario to base after it has been formally approved by the steering committee. Premature promotion creates confusion.
Troubleshooting
| Issue | Cause | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario not found | Scenario was deleted or belongs to another portfolio | Verify the scenario ID and portfolio context. |
| Budget total exceeds constraint | Scenario projects exceed the total budget constraint | Exclude lower-priority projects or reduce budget overrides to fit within the constraint. |
| Newly added portfolio project not in scenario | Project was added to portfolio after scenario creation | Use the toggle action to add the project to the scenario. |
| Compare returns empty data | One or more scenario IDs are invalid | Verify all scenario IDs exist and belong to the same portfolio. |
| Clone fails | Source scenario not found or belongs to another organization | Verify the source scenario ID and organization membership. |
| Promoted scenario lost base flag | Another scenario was promoted afterward | Only one base scenario exists per portfolio. The most recent promotion wins. |
Related Features
- Scoring & Optimization -- Scoring results inform which projects to include in scenarios
- Budgets & Costs -- Actual project budgets provide the baseline for scenario overrides
- Projects -- Individual project data feeds scenario computations
- Programs -- Program-level scenarios can be modeled by including/excluding program projects
- Financial Reports -- Financial projections complement scenario budget analysis